| A Look at the Other Five ACC Teams in the Big Dance | |
Here's a quick rundown on the ACC teams other than Duke in the 2011 NCAA
tournament, including seeding, region and overall chances.
Florida State
Seeding: #3 Dallas
First Round Matchup: Playing Samford in Auburn (3/20)
Overall Chances: I see FSU's combination of size, speed and scoring as being
way too much for Samford, and I don't think Georgia has enough weapons to take
on the Noles either. This will be a true neutral court game, so I think FSU
will be fine in both instances. However, the fun will stop against Texas A&M,
which has too much great guard play, too many good role players and way too
much Danielle Adams for FSU to contain. It's not that her bulk will concern
the equally powerful FSU center Cierra Bravard, it's that Adams could take her
outside all night long. It's simply a brutal matchup for Florida State, but
another Sweet Sixteen would mark another solid season.
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DWHoops File Photo by Orin Day
FSU's Sue Semrau
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Georgia Tech
Seeding: #5 Dayton
First Round Matchup: Playing Bowling Green in Columbus (3/19)
Overall Chances: The Jackets are quietly playing excellent basketball at the
moment. They beat Maryland in the ACC tournament and gave Duke a battle before
losing. Tech played really well in that game; Duke just played better. As a
dread 5 seed, they will be playing Curt Miller's tough Bowling Green team,
winners of 28 games. Miller makes some unusual and unorthodox coaching moves
that are often hard to counter, which makes up for a lack of elite athletes on
his team. I'm going to assume that BGSU will concede some of the shots that
Duke gave the Jackets in the ACC tournament; if Tech can hit them with
regularity, they will win. If the Jackets fall back into uglyball, BGSU will
win by 7 to 10 points. It all falls on the shoulders of Alex Montgomery. If
she's aggressive and hunts her shot while still playing defense and getting
everyone else involved, the Jackets will be in great shape. Any passivity on
her part will play right into Bowling Green's hands. I actually think either
team could take out Ohio State, though doing it on their home floor could be
tricky. The Jackets don't have the firepower to keep up with Tennessee if they
get to the Sweet Sixteen.
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DWHoops File Photo by Orin Day
Georgia Tech's Alex Montgomery
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Maryland
Seeding: #4 Philadelphia
First Round Matchup: Hosting St. Francis (PA) in College Park (3/20)
Overall Chances: The Terps have the big advantage of hosting their first two
games in the Comcast Center. With the Maryland men sitting home this
postseason, I would guess Terp fans will jam the place, especially if they wind
up meeting local rival Georgetown in the second round. I don't expect a tough
St Francis team to give Maryland much difficulty in the first round and I would
guess that they would relish a rematch with the Hoyas, who defeated them earlier
this year. This Terp team is far more seasoned and has established itself as a
dominant rebounding team. The key to their success is Alyssa Thomas; if she
gets in foul trouble, Maryland is susceptible to long offensive droughts. Her
mid-range game and ability to penetrate helps to set up the posts for open
looks and the guards for kick-outs. Her ability to grab offensive boards also
makes her dangerous. Home court should give them the edge over the Hoyas, but
the fun should end against UConn in the Sweet Sixteen. That said, Maryland's
depth and size are exactly the two things UConn doesn't possess, so they could
make things interesting for awhile. Of course, the Terps don't have a player
who can guard Maya Moore, which could lead to a long night if she's really
clicking. A Sweet Sixteen for a group with no seniors would be a fine prize
indeed.
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DWHoops File Photo by Orin Day
Other teams in the College Park pod may have no answer to Maryland's Lynetta Kizer
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Miami
Seeding: #3 Dayton
First Round Matchup: Playing Gardner-Webb in Charlottesville (3/20)
Overall Chances: This is a very dangerous pod for the Canes, a team with
extensive WNIT experience but no NCAA games. Miami's short bench and
dependence on jump shots makes them a prime candidate for an upset.
Gardner-Webb dethroned a tough Liberty team in the Big South tournament and
will be playing relatively close to home. Don't be surprised to see a busload
or two of fans come out to this game. I expect Miami's pressure and
athleticism to carry them through their first round game, but their second
round opponent will be far tougher. JMU has one of the country's leading
scorers in Dawn Evans, while Oklahoma has ultra-athletic forward Danielle
Robinson. JMU is very close to Charlottesville, where the game will be played,
and so if they upset Oklahoma it will be a road game for Miami. Oklahoma tends
to travel well, so the Canes could be facing a hostile crowd there as well. If
they get by those teams, I think they would actually fare pretty well against
Notre Dame, which has a relatively short bench. Beating #1 seed Tennessee
would be a tall order for a team like Miami right now, however. They have a
good shot at a Sweet Sixteen but I wouldn't be shocked to see them lose in the
second round.
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DWHoops File Photo by Orin Day
ACC Player of the Year Shenise Johnson will face other superstars if Miami advances.
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North Carolina
Seeding: #5 Spokane
First Round Matchup: Playing Fresno State in Albuquerque (3/19)
Overall Chances: Once again, the Heels get shipped west, this time at
altitude in Albuquerque. Is it an omen that ABQ is nicknamed "The Duke City"?
If that altitude doesn't affect Jessica Breland too adversely, then I expect her
to carry the Heels into the Sweet Sixteen. She's a weapon that Fresno State
won't be able to counter and will help set up the games of Italee Lucas, Chay
Shegog, Cetera DeGraffenreid, etc. Kentucky and Victoria Dunlap will be a
bigger challenge but not an insurmountable one, especially considering that it
will be a true neutral court. The fun will likely end with UCLA, which is too
quick and too well-coached to lose to the Heels. However, if every Heel has
her head screwed on straight (an event that has occurred rarely this season),
UNC could go as far as the Elite Eight and a meeting with Stanford. There,
their frontcourt edge would suddenly disappear against the Ogwumikes and Kayla
Pedersen. I do expect the uptick they experienced in the ACC tournament to
give them some real momentum in the NCAA tournament, especially as Breland
continues to heal from her knee injury and the damage her lungs took from
chemotherapy.
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The endurance of ACC Comeback Player of the Year Jessica
Breland may determine Carolina's postseason success.
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A preview of Duke's NCAA matchup with Tennessee-Martin and a look at the Durham pod will be published soon.
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