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Regional Semifinal #2
Duke (32-1) vs Rutgers (24-8)
2:30pm, March 24th,
ESPN
The Skinny: Rutgers is a familar face for the Devils, having played
them in
Piscataway back in December. The Devils blew out the Scarlet Knights on that
evening, a significant road win for a young team that needed to prove itself.
Rutgers had struggled up to that point and started the year with a 5-5 record.
Since that time, they've righted their ship and picked up big wins over Pitt,
Mississippi, South Florida, Temple, Michigan State (twice), Notre Dame, and
UConn. That last win was the most significant, given that it came after two
earlier losses to the Huskies, that it was in Hartford, and it was for the Big
East title. This will be a much different Rutgers team than the one Duke
played earlier. They'll play much better defense, act more cohesively on
offense and generally just play harder. Duke should expect a battle not unlike
the one Temple gave them.
The Players: The Scarlet Knights get most of their scoring out of 4
players
and rarely go
beyond 7 deep. The scoring is balanced, though most of it comes from the
perimeter. The current leading scorer is 6-4 center Kia Vaughn at 12.9 ppg.
Though held to just 5 points against Duke, she did pull down 18 rebounds.
Rutgers' defensive whiz is 6-0 forward Essence Carson, who puts up 12.6 ppg and
grabs 6.4 rpg. She was curiously ineffective against Duke in their first
meeting, with Carrem Gay shutting her down. In the backcourt is superfrosh
Epiphanny Prince, who scores 12.6 ppg, shooting 36% from three. The team's
heart is Matee Ajavon; though she lags behind the others with 11.4 ppg, she can
explode on any given night. She shoots 37% from three and if she gets into a
rhythm, watch out. The other starter is utility forward Heather Zurich, who's
there to hit the occasional open shot. Off the bench are frosh guard Brittany
Ray (5.8 ppg), who offers firepower; and Myia McCurdy, who offers size.
The Matchups: Carson, Ajavon and Prince love to share the ball;
all average
around 3 asssists per game. Ajavon and Prince also love to shoot from all over
the floor. Prince mixes up her threes with quick drives to the basket, where
she converts fouls into points. Carson can shoot a little but is more
effective near the basket. Vaughn is the team's workhorse and spends a lot of
time cleaning up missed baskets and converting at a 56% clip. Rutgers plays
sticky, relentless defense and would like to play at a relatively slow clip.
The fact that they have three players who can create their own shot (and
sometimes four) makes them hard to defend when the shot clock is running down.
Of course, Duke will take their chances with one-on-one play from the Knights if
it means they're not getting the ball to Vaughn or passing the ball around for
good shots. While Rutgers is a good team, Duke does match up well with them.
Gay is quite familiar with most of the players, having played against many of
them in high school and AAU ball; she's a perfect matchup for Carson because
she can follow her all over the court. Bales' sheer size overwhelmed Vaughn in
the first game; Rutgers is foul-prone to begin with and Bales simply got the
ball in good position and went up hard. Smith and Harding are as quick as
Ajavon & Prince and could force them into turning the ball over (especially
Ajavon). All Waner has to do with Zurich is make sure she's not left alone
from three.
What To Look For: I suspect Rutgers coach C.Vivian Stringer will
quickly opt to
bring Ray into the game in an effort to stretch Duke out a bit more
defensively. That would make her team perilously small against the Devils,
something Duke might further opt to exploit by using Joy Cheek to bang against
Vaughn inside. Given Bales' difficulty with Temple, I expect the Knights to
test her right away on defense, with Vaughn posting her up and Carson trying to
score over her. Ali has to be ready to play physical defense and the team nees
to get her the ball in decent scoring position early on. I suspect Rutgers
will try to blanket Waner early on and give Smith & Harding open looks from
long range. The x-factor in this game could once again be Gay; if she can get
offensive rebounds, control Carson and get a few points here and there, Rutgers
will be forced to jack up a lot of shots. The biggest key for Duke will be
taking care of the ball. Duke won't be able to afford Rutgers scoring off
their turnovers like Temple did. Duke has a number of advantages in this game,
but turning the ball over would neutralize them. Of course, Rutgers will be
looking for sloppy passes, rushed shots and careless dribbles eagerly. If Duke
controls the boards, gets good shots, prevents Rutgers from getting open looks
from three, then they should win without much trouble. Any sloppiness or
communication problems at either end of the floor could make this a nail-biter.
One things's for sure: given Rutgers' deliberate tempo, the Devils can't afford
to fall behind them in the second half.
Bowling Green (31-3)
The Skinny: The
Falcons are one of the mid-major surprises in the Sweet Sixteen, and
they're looking to be the women's version of last year's George Mason
club. While not a big club (no one over 6-1), they use a stifling defense,
excellent three point shooting (38% as a team), and precision with the
ball to beat their opponents. Duke beat them in the Caribbean earlier
this year, but it was a tight game. In fact, BGSU led by 6 points in the
second half before Bales, Harding & Smith took over. The Falcons overcame
a deficit to beat Oklahoma State in the first round, then held off a rally
by 2 seed Vanderbilt to score a major upset. Duke beat them the first
time they met by extending their defense and preventing them from getting
any good looks; BGSU shot just 8-27 from three. On the other hand, the
Falcons forced 23 Duke turnovers, one of Duke's worst showings this
season. This team, with 5 seniors, a junior and a sophomore in their main
rotation, would be yet another ultra-annoying opponent for the Devils to
play--their cohesiveness and defense make them a tough draw for anyone.
The Players: Bowling Green has remarkably balanced scoring,
with 5 players averaging between 10 and 15 points a game. They're led by
forward Ali Mann, who had 15 points against Duke in their first meeting,
which was right at her average. She shoots 44% from three and grabs 5.8
rpg. At point guard is Kate Achter. While not a great shooter, she loves
to penetrate and open up shots for players on the perimeter or going all
the way to the hoop. Carin Horne is the other forward, getting 12 and 5 a
game. Liz Honneger is the team's 5-11 center, shooting 38% from three
while getting 5 boards. Megan Thorburn is another perimeter threat
hitting 42% of her threes for 6 ppg, while Lindsey Goldsberry comes off
the bench to help a little with distributing the ball. The team's post
presence off the bench is Amber Flynn, who puts up 10 and 4.
The Matchups: If Duke advances and faces Bowling Green, Bales
would be the key to this game. Given her huge height advantage, she'd
have a clear look at any shot she wanted. If BG brought the double-team,
that would open up everything for her teammates. Duke would need to be
patient but aggressive, looking to exploit their superior team speed
without throwing the ball away. Arizona State will be a tough test for
BGSU, because they have so much depth and so many players who can score.
What they don't have is a lot of size.
What To Look For: Regional Semi-Final foe Arizona State has had
slow starts in their first two games. Look for Bowling Green to try to get
an early knockout by penetrating and kicking to shooters. ASU guards the
three extremely well, so BGSU will have to make every shot count.
Defensively, BGSU will jump passing lanes and trap a bit in order to
generate some easy baskets. They must stay out of foul trouble at all
costs and maybe go a little deeper into their bench in the first half,
because the Sun Devils usually can wear their opponents down. I expect
the Falcons to pull the upset here.
Arizona State (30-4)
The Skinny: It's
unclear just how good Arizona State is. Like Bowling Green, they've
picked up a lot of wins against unranked foes. Unlike BGSU, they barely
survived their first and second-round games against UC-Riverside and
Louisville, overcoming double-digit deficits to win. This team is best
known for its depth (9 players get over 12 minutes a game), versatility
and ability to get scoring from multiple positions.
The Players: The team's heart and soul are senior forwards
Emily Westerberg and Aubree Johson. Westerberg gets 13 and 5 a game,
while Johnson puts up 10 & 6. The team's sparkplug is point guard Briann
January, a 41% three point shooter who leads the team in assists. Guards
Danielle Orsillo and Jill Noe are also long-range threats, with the former
coming off the bench. 6-6 Kirsten Thompson could be a key factor; she's
scoring 7 ppg for the Sun Devils. Reagan Periseau is the team's utility
player as a starter, while guard Kate Engelbrecht is yet another threat to
account for.
The Matchups: If Duke advanced and faced the Sun Devils, Duke
would be a lot quicker than ASU at most positions and have a sizeable
rebounding advantage. Thompson might be inserted to slow Ali Bales down,
but she doesn't have the strength to really annoy her at the moment.
Duke's biggest task would be to cover all of their shooters and cut off
penetration--but this would be true for Bowling Green as well. Neither
ASU nor BGSU is a great rebounding team, a plus for Duke but a push in
their matchup against each other.
What To Look For: For Arizona State, they have to come out
with energy and take care of the ball above all else. They will get shots
off against Bowling Green, but have to take care to attempt only the right
ones. If ASU can get a rebounding advantage and defend the perimeter,
then they could win. It's going to be tough to face an unorthodox foe
like BGSU and control their turnovers; the Falcons have a way of breaking
down any opponent and forcing them to make bad decisions. Given ASU's
tendency to make bad decisions all on their own in this tournament and
their lack of a recent quality win, I would guess that ASU will fall
behind early again, rally, but ultimately come up short.
