Editor's Note: DWHoops.com will provide full coverage of
Duke in Raleigh, including recaps, player stats &
commentary, and photo galleries.
Duke has the advantage of playing in Raleigh and then Greensboro if
they survive the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament, which was their
goal all along. The Greensboro region features a number of potential
rematches for Duke, as Rutgers, Vanderbilt & Bowling Green are all in this
bracket. Duke's bracket overall isn't the toughest path a team has to
face to get to Cleveland, but there are certainly some challenges here.
I'll post a much more extensive preview later in the week of the other
three teams in Duke's Raleigh pod and also run down the other portions of
Duke's bracket, but I just wanted to give a snapshot of what they'll be
facing now. First up is Holy Cross, a team with a 15-17 overall record.
What's amazing is that this team started the year 6-14, but they came
together down the stretch to win the Patriot League tournament. Mutual
opponents include Dartmouth and Boston College, both of whom thumped the
Crusaders. The team is led by 6-4 center Kaitlin Foley and three-point
bomber Bethany O'Dell. Duke played Holy Cross in the 2005 and 2006
seasons, winning by an average of 55 points. The Crusaders will play with
the abandon of a team that has nothing to lose, but they won't have the
quickness to keep up with Duke.
More intriguing is the second-round matchup against either Temple or
Nebraska. The Owls are coached by former Virginia star Dawn Staley, who
brought the program back from ruin. While the team's top star graduated
after last season, Staley held them together for a nice season. They are
led by forward Kamesha Hairston, who averaged 19 points and 9 rebounds for
the Owls. The Owls played four ACC teams this season, beating Georgia
Tech but losing to NC State, Maryland and Virginia. Temple also lost to
Bowling Green, another Duke foe.
Nebraska is a team that was headed for a much higher seed before they
lost 5 of their last 6 games. The Huskers have wins over New Mexico,
Baylor, Texas, Iowa State and NC State. All but Texas are NCAA teams.
The team is led by senior guard Kiera Hardy and sophomore forward Kelsey
Griffin, both of whom average about 15 ppg. I give a slight edge to
Nebraska in this game, but this will be a tight contest.
There's some intrigue in East Lansing. The #4 seed is Rutgers, a team
Duke thrashed in the first meeting. However, the Scarlet Knights turned
things around dramatically and even upset surging UConn for the Big East
tournament title. They'll go up against one of four teams from North
Carolina to make the tournament in ECU. That game will be on the home
floor of Michigan State, the fifth seed. Yup, in a quirk of seeding and a
dumb rule, Michigan State will play at home against a higher seed.
Unlike in the men's field, teams that host a sub-regional are allowed to
play on their home court. This has led to lower seeds getting an unfair
advantage, but it seems as though the committee isn't quite ready for
truly neutral seedings. This method seems like it's neither fish nor
fowl; if they're not going to fully neutral seedings, they should just go
back to the old system of rewarding the top 16 seeds with home court
advantage through the first two rounds. This problem is a bit more
pronounced in the Dayton regional, as Tennessee might have to play #8 seed
Pitt on their home court in the second round.
There's an interesting wildcard in both instances, and that's the CAA.
Delaware is Michigan State's first=round opponent, and the Blue Hens have
been one of the better under-the-radar teams this season. Pitt has to
play James Madison, another CAA team that got into the tournament thanks
to its RPI and strength of schedule.
Speaking of mid-majors, the potential (and probable) matchup between
Bowling Green and Vanderbilt in the second round in Duke's region could be
one of the most compelling second-round matchups. This is going to be a
battle between two teams that love to shoot the three, and BGU is so
extreme in this regard that their center is one of their top shooters.
Rounding out the region, Duke's #3 seed is Arizona State, a fine team
that is deep and plays great defense. Both Rutgers and ASU have the kind
of toughness that could give Duke a lot of trouble, while Vandy matches up
nicely in terms of size, versatility and firepower. Though Duke won the
first matchup by 21 in Durham, that game was much closer for most of the
way. Six seed Louisville sports the most prolific scorer in this region,
with soph forward Angel McCoughtry averaging 21 ppg and 10 rpg. The Cards
will face a disciplined BYU squad that could annoy them.
Taking a peek at the other regions, I'm extremely intrigued by the
Fresno regional. NC State will likely play Baylor in Raleigh's second
round; the home court advantage could be enough to push them through to
the third round. They would likely play UConn in Gillian Goring's first
matchup against the school that once recruited her. The Pack actually has
the size and toughness to match up well with the Huskies. Beating a
number one seed is not out of the question in Kay Yow's magical mystery
tour. What's even more intriguing is that the Pack would then have a
great shot at Yow's second Final Four, considering that the Pack match up
well with both Stanford and LSU.
In Dallas, UNC has been awarded an invitation to skip right towards
the Final Four as they got the easiest region by far. This makes up for
the torture chamber they had to face last season, but they probably got
rewarded a bit too readily here. They will have no problem in the first
two rounds [Orin: I think Joanne Boyle and Cal might be inspired to
make a problem for Carolina...] and should be able to dispatch either
Texas A&M or George Washington with ease. While both of those teams play
fine defense, they don't have the guns to keep up with the Heels. That
leaves either an average Purdue team or underachieving Georgia team as
their foe in the regional final. The Heels should be able to dispatch
both of those teams with ease as they move on to Cleveland.
On the other hand, the Dayton region features 5 outstanding seeds from
1-5. Tennessee has to play a solid Pitt squad on their home floor in the
second round, and then face Ohio State (a top 5 team until they lost
Brandie Hoskins) or Middle Tennessee State (who beat Georgia and nearly
beat Maryland). Their reward will either be Courtney Paris & Oklahoma or
the defending champs in Maryland. The Sooners have really come on as late
and Maryland's ability to score from all five positions would be a supreme
test. If the Lady Vols make it through to Cleveland, they'll have earned
it.
Two more ACC teams made the tourney: Florida State as a 10 seed
(playing Old Dominion in the first round) and Georgia Tech as a 7 seed
(going up against DePaul). I thought the Jackets were seeded rather
generously, but the committee must have liked them beating Maryland and NC
State. FSU's seed is about right, as they beat most everyone they were
supposed to beat and didn't beat anyone great. I do think they have an
excellent chance to win 1 game, as do the Jackets.
I'll have a full breakdown of Holy Cross, Temple and Nebraska on
Thursday. This will include what Duke needs to do in order to win and what
fans can expect from each game.
